Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.459458 3.351569 4.615690 6.601659 9.769170 1.486614e+01 2.424818e+01
2025-03-23 1.613546 2.525496 4.082784 7.156671 13.707912 2.894176e+01 7.547466e+01
2025-03-30 1.126918 1.965640 3.632922 7.658571 19.049552 5.910853e+01 3.079962e+02
2025-04-06 0.766113 1.445220 2.957693 7.248259 22.824441 1.063215e+02 1.482439e+03
2025-04-13 0.531540 1.064462 2.361838 6.566787 25.664541 1.847610e+02 1.263274e+04
2025-04-20 0.413502 0.882836 2.142775 6.907625 35.643859 5.066488e+02 7.110048e+07
2025-04-27 0.342406 0.779754 2.078907 7.899120 57.601705 2.550492e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 0.290471 0.702425 2.050671 9.228343 101.000672 3.889187e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 0.241721 0.612299 1.921895 9.979479 161.801113 1.504516e+07 NaN
2025-05-18 0.194815 0.508159 1.671548 9.560571 208.663329 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.156325 0.415879 1.412502 8.647587 236.924944 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.135622 0.373158 1.339906 9.269859 399.947613 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.116959 0.332191 1.258470 9.845427 721.682347 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.103332 0.303597 1.219320 10.975059 1663.459847 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.091433 0.276760 1.171396 12.030717 4289.713845 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.078167 0.240094 1.043163 11.468887 6991.501585 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.066438 0.205781 0.907652 10.385318 9027.698246 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.059725 0.189142 0.868655 11.091852 31864.144190 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.055359 0.180461 0.874444 12.999413 558648.666290 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.051773 0.173785 0.889987 15.606856 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.047515 0.162746 0.866495 17.159142 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.042390 0.146304 0.790572 16.418653 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.037443 0.129421 0.701360 14.702388 NaN NaN NaN